Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?

37%
-12 % letzte 24 Std.

50%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 26. Aug.The rule required AEMET's official archived warnings for 25 August 2026 to show at least one Spanish area with an orange or red-level aviso specifically for extreme high temperatures at any time during that calendar day. AEMET's exhaustive archive for 25 August 2026 shows no areas at orange or red for any hazard, and the heat warnings that appear are only at yellow for zones such as Levante mallorquín, Litoral norte de Valencia, Litoral sur de Valencia and Norte y nordeste de Mallorca. Because no area had an orange or red aviso for extreme heat on 25 August 2026, the condition is not met and the market resolves to no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden50%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 50 % sicher und lag daneben.
Warum: Extracted condition: at least one Spanish área has an AEMET aviso at naranja (orange) or rojo (red) for the hazard 'extreme high temperatures / heat' at any time during calendar day 2026-08-25 (local time). Observed data (supplied AEMET archive for 2026-08-25): the archive is labeled EXHAUSTIVE. The section 'At NARANJA or ROJO at any point on 2026-08-25' states: 'NONE — no área in Spain reached naranja or rojo for any hazard on this date.' The archive does list 'extreme high temperatures (heat)' warnings, but only at AMARILLO (yellow) for multiple áreas (examples shown: Levante mallorquín; Litoral norte de Valencia; Litoral sur de Valencia; Norte y nordeste de Mallorca). Comparison: because no área is listed at naranja or rojo for any hazard (and the extreme-heat entries present are only amarillo), the market condition is not met. Outcome: NO.
Quelle: aemet.esQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenGiven the current forecasts, it looks like at least one region in Spain will hit an orange warning for extreme heat on the 25th. AEMET is not known for underestimating these events.

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60%
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85%
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25%
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63%
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