Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?

41%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

66%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 26. Aug.The market asked whether Météo‑France's official Vigilance map for 25 August 2026 showed at least one mainland département, a coastal zone, or the national roll‑up at orange or red for the 'Orages' hazard at any time that day. Météo‑France's official Vigilance archive for 25 August 2026 shows that no département, coastal zone, or the national roll‑up was at orange or red for the 'Orages' layer at any point, and that 'Orages' was recorded as yellow in 60 areas including the France roll‑up. Because no area reached orange or red for 'Orages' on 25 August 2026, the condition is not met, so the market resolves to no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden66%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 66 % sicher und lag daneben.
Warum: Extracted condition: whether any metropolitan département, coastal zone, or the national roll‑up was at orange (level 3) or red (level 4) for the Vigilance 'Orages' hazard at any time on 2026-08-25 per Météo‑France's official Vigilance archive. Target date/window: 2026-08-25 (any point during that calendar date). Observations used: the supplied Météo‑France archived snapshot for 2026-08-25 (explicitly labelled EXHAUSTIVE). That archive's section “At ORANGE or ROUGE at any point on 2026-08-25” states: NONE — no département, coastal zone or the national roll-up reached orange or rouge for any hazard on this date. The archive separately lists Orages as JAUNE in 60 areas (including the FRANCE national roll-up). Comparison: since the official archive explicitly reports zero areas at orange or red for Orages on 2026-08-25, the market condition is false. Outcome: NO.
Quelle: vigilance.meteofrance.frQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenOrange alert for thunderstorms announced by Météo France for Corsica tomorrow
According to the latest news, Corsica will be under orange alert for thunderstorms on August 25.
No
The forecast shows elevated thunderstorm warnings, but nothing reaches orange or red. No way a département hits the threshold tomorrow.

41%
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83%
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24%
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61%
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20%
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39%
-1 % letzte 24 Std.
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