Will Zack Polanski be elected MP for Holborn and St Pancras on 8 October?

🤖 Context

YES if the returning officer for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October 2026 publicly declares Zack Polanski elected as the Member of Parliament for the Holborn and St Pancras constituency, using the returning officer's final declaration after any recount. Preferably this is the returning officer's official declaration on the returning officer or local council website or the Electoral Commission, but ordinary reporting of that declaration by at least two independent national news outlets (for example BBC News, The Guardian, Reuters, ITV) is sufficient. If the declared result is legally voided by a court and no valid declaration stands by the resolution date, the market resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Oct 8, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 9, 2026. The outcome will be settled against theguardian.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 30%, based on 408 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

30%

Predictions made

408

Credits staked

7,150

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 19, 2026

Closes

Oct 8, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 9, 2026

Resolution source

theguardian.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Oct 8, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 9, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 30% and NO 70%, based on 408 predictions and 7.2K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against theguardian.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Zack Polanski be elected MP for Holborn and St Pancras on 8 October?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Zack Polanski be elected MP for Holborn and St Pancras on 8 October?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.