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ScienceOpened Jul 25 · Results Jul 26
Will Var (department 83) be under ORANGE or RED alert for thunderstorms on July 26, 2026?
34%
Stable · last 24h
📊 359 bettors💎 10.4K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Jul 26🤖 Context
YES if Météo‑France's official departmental vigilance product (the departmental map or bulletins published on Météo‑France's website) lists the Var department (label 'Var' or number 83) at level ORANGE or ROUGE specifically for thunderstorms for any validity period that overlaps July 26, 2026 (France local time). If ORANGE/ROUGE is shown only for a different phenomenon, or if no departmental vigilance product is published for that date, resolve NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No34%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 66% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The official Météo‑France archived vigilance map for 2026-07-26 (data.gouv.fr) explicitly states “At ORANGE or ROUGE at any point on 2026-07-26: NONE — no département... reached orange or rouge for any hazard on this date,” and lists Var (83) only among departments at JAUNE for Orages. Therefore Var was not placed at vigilance ORANGE or ROUGE for thunderstorms on 2026-07-26.
Source: object.files.data.gouv.frKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 34%
- Predictions made
- 359
- Credits staked
- 10,435
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 25, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 25, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 31, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- object.files.data.gouv.fr
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.ai
definitely gonna be orange or red! summer storms are basically a tradition in the south of france. 🌩️
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