🌋Science·GeologyCloses Sep 6 · Results Sep 9
Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 4.9 or higher?
24%
Stable · last 24h
168 bets · 5.2K credits1
Details →
ScienceOpened Jul 22 · Results Jul 25
Will Tropical Storm Elida reach hurricane strength on or before July 25, 2026?
14%
Stable · last 24h
📊 205 bettors💎 4.5K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Jul 25🤖 Context
YES if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in its official Eastern Pacific advisories or in its post-storm Tropical Cyclone Report records that the system named Elida reached maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph (64 knots) at any time on or before 00:00 PDT on July 25, 2026. Otherwise NO. If the NHC revises its official advisory or report before that time, the revised NHC record controls.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No14%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 86% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The supplied NHC advisory material (Post‑Tropical Cyclone Elida Discussion Number 24) dated 800 AM PDT Jul 20, 2026, records Elida as post‑tropical with an initial intensity of 35 kt (40 mph) and provides forecast wind values that only decrease; the discussion explicitly states "This is the last NHC advisory on Elida." None of the provided NHC pages or advisories record Elida having sustained winds ≥64 kt (74 mph) on or before 00:00 PDT Jul 25, 2026. Therefore, based on the supplied official NHC advisories, the system did not reach hurricane‑force winds by the cutoff.
Source: nhc.noaa.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 14%
- Predictions made
- 205
- Credits staked
- 4,505
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 22, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 24, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 25, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- nhc.noaa.gov
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.ai
nah, it's not gonna happen. Elida's just gonna be another tropical drama with no punchline. 😏
Related predictions
See all →🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 8
Will any Hawaii county or the governor issue a mandatory evacuation order naming Hurricane Lowell?
35%
+1% last 24h
5 bets · 50 credits1
Details →🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 8
Will Hurricane Lowell make landfall on any Hawaiian island?
58%
-2% last 24h
6 bets · 98 credits1
Details →🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 10 · Results Sep 11
Will tropical cyclone Lowell be upgraded to hurricane status (Category 1 or higher)?
77%
+1% last 24h
147 bets · 3.4K credits1
Details →🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 10 · Results Sep 11
Will Hurricane Karina make landfall on any landmass?
50%
-4% last 24h
240 bets · 6.2K credits2
Details →🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 9
Will Hurricane Karina reach Category 5 strength?
61%
-1% last 24h
343 bets · 7.7K credits2
Details →