Will Tropical Cyclone Karina make landfall on the coast of Baja California Sur, including its offshore islands?

🤖 Context

YES if the centre (eye or center of circulation) of the tropical cyclone named Karina crosses the seaward coastline of the state of Baja California Sur (including any offshore islands) and that crossing is explicitly reported as a landfall in at least one official advisory or public bulletin from an authoritative meteorological or civil‑protection agency (for example Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional / CONAGUA) no later than September 2, 2026. Otherwise NO. Do not count reports that only describe impacts, coastal flooding, or strong winds without an explicit statement that the cyclone's centre crossed the coastline, and if agencies disagree accept YES if any official agency explicitly reports Karina made landfall on Baja California Sur.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 28, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 3, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 63%, based on 5 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

63%

Predictions made

5

Credits staked

80

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 28, 2026

Closes

Aug 28, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 3, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 28, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 3, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 63% and NO 37%, based on 5 predictions and 80 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Tropical Cyclone Karina make landfall on the coast of Baja California Sur, including its offshore islands?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Tropical Cyclone Karina make landfall on the coast of Baja California Sur, including its offshore islands?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.