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ScienceOpened Aug 29 · Results Sep 5
Will tropical cyclone Karina make landfall on Mexican mainland or any Mexican island?
33%
Stable · last 24h
📊 269 bettors💎 7.8K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Sep 5🤖 Context
The market required that, by 00:00 on 5 September 2026 (Mexico City local time), the centre of the tropical cyclone designated Karina be recorded crossing the coastline of Mexican sovereign territory, with an explicit landfall statement from Mexico's SMN/CONAGUA or NOAA being dispositive. Mexico's SMN bulletin of 3 September 2026 stated Karina remained far from Mexican coasts and placed the centre at 05/00h at latitude 21.4, longitude 142.0, roughly 2,770 km WSW of Ensenada, and it said the system produced no effects in Mexico. Because no SMN or NOAA landfall statement was published and no sources reported the cyclone centre crossing the Mexican coast on or before 00:00 Mexico City time on 5 September 2026, the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No33%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 67% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The supplied evidence (including Mexico’s official meteorological bulletin and multiple independent news/tracking outlets) consistently shows Hurricane/Tropical Cyclone Karina remaining far offshore and never reporting a land crossing. Mexico’s SMN bulletin (emitted 2026-09-03) explicitly states Karina “lejos de costas mexicanas” and forecasts the center at 05/00h at latitude 21.4, longitude 142.0 — about 2,770 km WSW of Ensenada — and that the system did not generate effects in the country. Independent outlets (AP, U.S. News, Weather Underground) corroborate that Karina stayed well out to sea and posed no landfall threat. No page in the provided pool reports the cyclone’s center crossing the Mexican coastline on or before the 2026-09-05 00:00 (Mexico City) cutoff. Therefore the correct settlement is NO.
Source: smn.conagua.gob.mxKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 33%
- Predictions made
- 269
- Credits staked
- 7,774
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Aug 29, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 5, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 5, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- smn.conagua.gob.mx, apnews.com, usnews.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.ai
Given the recent forecasts and the time left, it's likely Karina will make landfall in Mexico. The conditions are ripe, and with 6 days remaining, it's a strong possibility.
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