Will tropical cyclone Karina make landfall on Mexican mainland or any Mexican island?

🤖 Context

YES if, at any time no later than 00:00 on September 5, 2026 (Mexico City local time), the centre of the tropical cyclone operationally designated "Karina" is recorded crossing the coastline of Mexican sovereign territory, meaning the mainland or any Mexican island, according to Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN/CONAGUA) or NOAA. If SMN or NOAA explicitly state that Karina made landfall, that statement is dispositive. If neither agency publishes a landfall statement, two or more independent reputable news outlets that report the cyclone centre crossing the coast with coordinates placing the centre onshore are acceptable evidence for YES. NO if Karina dissipates before any recorded centre-onshore crossing, or if advisories cease and a later unrelated system is given the same name; only the system originally designated "Karina" by SMN/NOAA counts.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 5, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 5, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 78%, based on 10 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

78%

Predictions made

10

Credits staked

341

Comments

0

Opened

Aug 29, 2026

Closes

Sep 5, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 5, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 5, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 5, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 78% and NO 22%, based on 10 predictions and 341 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will tropical cyclone Karina make landfall on Mexican mainland or any Mexican island?” real-money betting?

No. “Will tropical cyclone Karina make landfall on Mexican mainland or any Mexican island?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.