Will tropical cyclone Iselle make landfall in Mexico?

🤖 Context

YES if the circulation center of tropical cyclone 'Iselle' is recorded as making landfall on Mexican sovereign territory, including offshore Mexican islands, no later than August 28, 2026, meaning the cyclone's center moved from over water to over land. Resolution requires at least one authoritative meteorological agency, preferably Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (CONAGUA-SMN) or the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), to issue an advisory, bulletin, or update that explicitly states landfall occurred, and if neither SMN nor NHC uses the term by the deadline the market resolves YES if two or more major independent news organizations publish unambiguous contemporaneous reports giving a time and location, otherwise it resolves NO. If agencies disagree but at least one of SMN or NHC explicitly states landfall, the market resolves YES and post-season reanalysis after the resolution date does not change the outcome.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 28, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 29, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 41%, based on 4 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

41%

Predictions made

4

Credits staked

140

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 23, 2026

Closes

Aug 28, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 29, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 28, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 29, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 41% and NO 59%, based on 4 predictions and 140 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will tropical cyclone Iselle make landfall in Mexico?” real-money betting?

No. “Will tropical cyclone Iselle make landfall in Mexico?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.