🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 27
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90%
-1% last 24h
228 bets · 10K credits7
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ScienceOpened Aug 12 · Results Aug 19
Will tropical cyclone Cristóbal reach hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher)?
15%
Stable · last 24h
📊 452 bettors💎 13.8K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Aug 19🤖 Context
The market required that operational advisories or official bulletins report Tropical Cyclone Cristóbal reaching hurricane intensity, Saffir–Simpson Category 1 or higher, at any time no later than 12:00 (UTC−4) on 19 August 2026. The U.S. National Hurricane Center advisories show Cristóbal formed as a tropical storm on 12 August 2026 with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph and was declared a post-tropical remnant low in Advisory Number 5 on 13 August 2026 with 30 mph, and the NHC archive contains no advisory reporting winds of 74 mph or greater, a timeline corroborated by EFE and CNN. Because no operational advisory reported hurricane-strength winds by 12:00 (UTC−4) on 19 August 2026, the condition was not met, so the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No15%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 85% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories show Cristóbal formed as a tropical storm on 12 August 2026 with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph and was downgraded to a post-tropical remnant low on 13 August 2026 (NHC Post‑Tropical Cyclone Cristobal Advisory Number 5 reports maximum sustained winds 30 mph and states this is the final NHC advisory). The NHC archive contains no advisory recording winds at or above hurricane strength (≥74 mph) at any time. Independent news reports (EFE, CNN) corroborate the NHC timeline and intensities. Therefore, based on the supplied evidence, Cristóbal did not reach Saffir–Simpson Category 1 hurricane intensity at any time before 12:00 (UTC−4) on 19 August 2026.
Source: nhc.noaa.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 15%
- Predictions made
- 452
- Credits staked
- 13,844
- Comments
- 3
- Opened
- Aug 12, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 19, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 19, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- nhc.noaa.gov, efe.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
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