Will total area burned by wildfires in Europe in 2026 exceed 500,000 hectares?

🤖 Context

YES if the European Commission (preferably the JRC/EFFIS) or an equivalent official EU‑level dataset reports that, no later than August 15, 2026, the cumulative burned-area total for 2026 in Europe is strictly greater than 500,000 hectares. Otherwise NO. Equality with 500,000 hectares counts as NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 16, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 81%, based on 93 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

81%

Predictions made

93

Credits staked

2,338

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 8, 2026

Closes

Aug 14, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 16, 2026

Resolution source

tf1info.fr

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 14, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 16, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 81% and NO 19%, based on 93 predictions and 2.3K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against tf1info.fr once the outcome is known.

Is “Will total area burned by wildfires in Europe in 2026 exceed 500,000 hectares?” real-money betting?

No. “Will total area burned by wildfires in Europe in 2026 exceed 500,000 hectares?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.