🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 27
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91%
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254 bets · 10.8K credits7
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ScienceOpened Aug 8 · Results Aug 16
Will total area burned by wildfires in Europe in 2026 exceed 500,000 hectares?
92%
Stable · last 24h
📊 2125 bettors💎 56.6K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 16🤖 Context
The market resolves as 'yes' if the European Commission (preferably the JRC/EFFIS) or an equivalent EU dataset reports, by 15 August 2026, that the cumulative burned area in Europe for calendar year 2026 is strictly greater than 500,000 hectares. JRC/EFFIS reported 567,097 ha on 12 August 2026 (weekly update) and 568,415 ha on 13 August 2026 (daily update), and these figures are explicitly given as totals since the start of the year. Those reported totals are above 500,000 ha and were published before 15 August 2026, so the condition is met and the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes92%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 92% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The EU's Joint Research Centre (EFFIS) — the official Copernicus/EFFIS wildfire monitoring — reports cumulative burnt area for the year 2026 in the EU at 567,097 ha as of 2026-08-12 (weekly update) and 568,415 ha as of 2026-08-13 (daily update). These figures are explicitly "since the start of the year" (calendar 2026) and exceed 500,000 hectares; cumulative burned area cannot decrease, so the total by 2026-08-15 23:59:59+02:00 must be strictly greater than 500,000 ha. Independent data summaries (e.g. VisualCapitalist / Our World in Data) also show Europe-wide burned-area totals well above 500,000 ha earlier in August, corroborating the scale. Decisive evidence is the EFFIS / JRC reported totals above 500,000 ha in mid-August 2026.
Source: joint-research-centre.ec.europa.euKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 92%
- Predictions made
- 2,125
- Credits staked
- 56,582
- Comments
- 7
- Opened
- Aug 8, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 14, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 16, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu, visualcapitalist.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 7 comments
- 💀
We bet whether our planet will burn a little, a lot... It's very sad..
- 💀
As of August 10, 2026, fires had already affected 542,926 hectares in the European Union (According to JRC/EFFIS (European Commission))
- 🐼
fs
- 🪙
Yes
- 🔥
According to the official data from the Copernicus Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) for this year 2026, the figure of over 500,000 hectares burned in the European Union has already been surpassed. That's why I bet on whether
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