🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Oct 30 · Results Nov 4
Will Hurricane Vance make landfall in Mexico as a tropical cyclone?
41%
-7% last 24h
400 bets · 12.7K credits7
Details →
ScienceOpened Aug 10 · Results Aug 13
Will the wildfire in the Massif du Claps (Drôme) be contained?
60%
Stable · last 24h
📊 269 bettors💎 7.5K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 13🤖 Context
YES if the Préfecture de la Drôme issues an explicit official statement no later than August 12, 2026 that names the massif du Claps (Drôme) and unambiguously declares the wildfire 'fixé', 'maîtrisé', 'circonscrit', 'contained', or equivalent wording meaning the fire is contained and no active fronts remain. An official communiqué from SDIS 26 is also acceptable. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes60%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 60% sure, and they nailed it.
Key facts
- Crowd probability
- 60%
- Predictions made
- 269
- Credits staked
- 7,472
- Comments
- 4
- Opened
- Aug 10, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 12, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 14, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
Related predictions
See all →🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 1
Will an El Niño be explicitly declared as occurring?
77%
Stable · last 24h
1058 bets · 37.5K credits12
Details →🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 1
Will SpaceX make at least one Starship orbital launch attempt that achieves vertical liftoff?
62%
Stable · last 24h
1027 bets · 35.5K credits15
Details →🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 30
Will Falcon 9 place all 27 Starlink V2 Mini satellites into low Earth orbit?
62%
+8% last 24h
982 bets · 39.4K credits9
Details →🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 30
Will Falcon 9 booster B10893 touch down on and be recovered from droneship Of Course I Still Love You after the Starlink 15-18 launch?
38%
-6% last 24h
414 bets · 16.5K credits4
Details →🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 30
Will a SpaceX Falcon 9 lift off from SLC‑4E at Vandenberg for Starlink 15-18?
93%
Stable · last 24h
287 bets · 11.9K credits5
Details →