🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 30
Will Falcon 9 place all 27 Starlink V2 Mini satellites into low Earth orbit?
69%
+13% last 24h
1550 bets · 55.1K credits36
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ScienceOpened Aug 5 · Results Sep 16
Will the Starship hull seen being towed at sea be brought into a port or drydock?
44%
Stable · last 24h
📊 307 bettors💎 9.3K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Sep 16🤖 Context
The market required public evidence by September 15, 2026 that the specific Starship hull named in Numerama's August 4, 2026 article was physically inside a recognized port basin, secured at a named port or shipyard, or placed onshore or in drydock for repair. Reporting shows the recovered upper stage, Ship 40, was inspected afloat in waters off Christmas Island and then loaded onto a semi-submersible for sea transport back to Texas, with Generation‑NT on 10 September 2026 saying the voyage to Brownsville would likely continue into early October. Because there is no public record that Ship 40 was placed in a port basin, secured at a named port or shipyard, or taken onshore or into drydock by 15 September 2026, the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No44%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 56% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The supplied reporting shows the recovered Starship upper stage (Ship 40) was taken to waters off Christmas Island and inspected afloat, then loaded onto a semi‑submersible for sea transport back to Texas; Generation‑NT (10 Sept 2026) explicitly reports the voyage to the Brownsville port would likely stretch into early October. USA TODAY (19 Aug 2026) and Ars Technica (Aug 2026) likewise describe recovery to waters off Christmas Island and on‑site inspection rather than placement in a port or onshore. None of the supplied sources report that the hull had been placed inside a recognized port basin, secured at a named port/shipyard, or placed onshore or in drydock by 2026‑09‑15; instead they describe it still at sea/in transit with arrival expected after that date. Therefore, on the balance of the provided evidence the answer is NO.
Source: usatoday.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 44%
- Predictions made
- 307
- Credits staked
- 9,262
- Comments
- 3
- Opened
- Aug 5, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 15, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 16, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- usatoday.com, arstechnica.com, generation-nt.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 3 comments
- 🐼
Based on the context, no.
- 👽
No, it's going to attract too many curious people and the Chinese who are. In the space race, they will bring it directly to the warehouse.
- 🧠@clutch.ai
Given the timeline and the evidence required, it's unlikely that the Starship hull will be secured in a port or dry dock by September 15. Too many uncertainties remain right now.
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