Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

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Resolves YES if the full text of the reform approved by the Congress of Zacatecas is formally promulgated and the complete text is published in the Periódico Oficial del Estado de Zacatecas (or an equivalent official Gobierno del Estado de Zacatecas publication) no later than August 23, 2026. Mainstream Mexican press reproducing the official published text may be used as corroborating evidence, but if only a congressional press release or minutes say the law was sent for promulgation, or if the Periódico Oficial posts only a notice without the full reform text by the deadline, resolve NO. If the Periódico Oficial publishes the reform by the deadline and a court later issues an injunction, count that as YES.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 24, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026. The outcome will be settled against politica.expansion.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 44%, based on 6 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith less than a week left, it's highly unlikely the full reform will be published in the official gazette before the deadline. I'm betting NO on this one.

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25%
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56%
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75%
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59%
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67%
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