🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 27
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Stable · last 24h
215 bets · 9.4K credits7
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ScienceOpened Sep 28 · Results Oct 2
Will the Philippines have an earthquake of magnitude 4.9 or greater?
35%
Stable · last 24h
📊 214 bettors💎 7K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 2🤖 Context
The market required the USGS to list at least one earthquake with USGS 'mag' 4.9 or greater that occurred in the Philippines between 00:00 UTC on September 29, 2026 (inclusive) and 00:00 UTC on October 2, 2026. The USGS catalogue shows one matching event: on October 1, 2026 at 05:34 UTC a magnitude 5 earthquake occurred 38 km west-southwest of Palimbang, Philippines. Because that event’s reported magnitude meets or exceeds 4.9 and its timestamp falls inside the window, the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes35%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 65% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: At least one USGS-listed earthquake with USGS 'mag' >= 4.9 that occurred in the Philippines between 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00 (inclusive) and 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00 (exclusive). Observed value(s): USGS catalog query returned 1 matching earthquake: 2026-10-01 05:34 UTC — M5 — 38 km WSW of Palimbang, Philippines (lat 6.1116, lon 123.8599). Comparison: reported magnitude M5 is >= 4.9 and the event timestamp (2026-10-01 05:34 UTC) lies within the resolution window, so the condition is satisfied.
Source: earthquake.usgs.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 35%
- Predictions made
- 214
- Credits staked
- 6,992
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Sep 28, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 29, 2026
- Resolved
- Oct 2, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- earthquake.usgs.gov
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
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