Will the Gironde megafire's burned area exceed 50,000 hectares?

🤖 Context

YES if a French official — the Préfecture de la Gironde or the Préfecture de Nouvelle‑Aquitaine, or if neither publishes, SDIS 33 — publicly states a cumulative burned area strictly greater than 50,000 hectares for the single Gironde wildfire described as the "mégafeu," no later than 18:00 on August 4, 2026. National news agencies (for example AFP, Franceinfo, Le Monde, TF1) quoting those authorities with the same figure are acceptable corroboration. If authorities publish only a numeric range that straddles 50,000 hectares, the market resolves YES only if an official source explicitly says the burned area "exceeds" 50,000 hectares. If authorities report multiple separately named incidents, use the figure the Préfecture explicitly labels as the Gironde / "mégafeu" incident.

Key facts

Crowd probability

20%

Predictions made

850

Credits staked

25,655

Comments

3

Opened

Aug 2, 2026

Closes

Aug 4, 2026

Resolved

Aug 5, 2026

Outcome

No

Resolution source

france24.com, sudouest.fr, actu.fr