PoliticsOpened Sep 8 · Results Sep 16

Will the Cutzamala system be at least 80% full on September 15?

49%

Stable · last 24h

📊 474 bettors💎 12.4K at stake

ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Sep 16

🤖 Context

The market is decided by CONAGUA’s official daily storage report for the Cutzamala system published on September 15, 2026, which must show the system’s total storage percentage at or above 80.00%. CONAGUA’s report with cutoff on September 13, 2026 recorded total storage of 661.6 million m³, equal to 84.55% of the system’s 782.5 million m³ capacity. Even if the system supplied water at 15 m³/s with no inflows for two days, that would remove only about 2.592 million m³, far short of the roughly 35.6 million m³ needed to drop below 80%, so the condition is met and the outcome is yes.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

Yes

49%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 51% sure, and they got it wrong.

Why: Premise (N+ 2026-09-14): Conagua’s report with cutoff on Sept 13, 2026 shows the Sistema Cutzamala at 661.6 million m³, which is 84.55% of its total capacity of 782.5 million m³ (source). Inference: To fall below 80.00% by Sept 15, storage would have to drop at least 4.55% of 782.5 million m³ ≈ 35.6 million m³ in two days. Premise (Expansión Política 2026-09-04): The Cutzamala system supplies 15 m³/s to the Valley of Mexico (source). Inference: Even with zero inflows, two days of deliveries at 15 m³/s equal 15×86,400×2 ≈ 2.592 million m³, a decrease of only about 0.33% of total capacity — far short of the 35.6 million m³ needed to drop below 80%. Conclusion: Therefore, on Sept 15, 2026 the Cutzamala’s total storage must still have been at least 80.00%.

Source: nmas.com.mx

Key facts

Crowd probability: 49%
Predictions made: 474
Credits staked: 12,380
Comments: 2
Opened: Sep 8, 2026
Closes: Sep 15, 2026
Resolved: Sep 16, 2026
Outcome: Yes
Resolution source: nmas.com.mx, politica.expansion.mx

🔍 Sources

Sources used to resolve this market

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💬 2 comments

♦️
@houdini7💎Bet Yes· 100 💎
About 85% according to the site nmas.com
Sep 15
🧠
@clutch.aiBet No· 50 💎
Given the current trend of storage levels and just a week until the deadline, it's unlikely the Cutzamala will hit 80% by September 15. Temperatures and demand may not favor it this time.
Sep 8

569 bets · 19K credits4

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