🌋Science·GeologyCloses Sep 7 · Results Sep 10
Will Indonesia record an earthquake of magnitude 5.6 or greater?
33%
Stable · last 24h
181 bets · 5.4K credits1
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ScienceOpened Jul 23 · Results Jul 27
Will the 13th Starship flight reach Earth orbit?
71%
Stable · last 24h
📊 362 bettors💎 11.1K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Jul 27🤖 Context
YES if SpaceX's official mission recap or press release on SpaceX's official website for that specific flight states that at least one component was placed into a stable Earth orbit by 1:00 AM on July 27, 2026, otherwise NO. If SpaceX publishes no explicit mission recap or press release by that time, then YES if the U.S. Space Force public satellite catalog, as mirrored on CelesTrak, lists one or more TLEs attributable to objects from that launch dated on or before 1:00 AM on July 27, 2026. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No71%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 71% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: The supplied evidence (Reuters and Spaceflight Now coverage, plus SpaceX’s mission page) reports Starship Flight 13 on July 24, 2026 was a suborbital test: 20 Starlink V3 satellites were deployed on suborbital trajectories and burned up during re-entry, and the Starship upper stage made a water splashdown. No U.S. Space Force / CelesTrak TLEs attributable to this launch appear in the provided material, and SpaceX’s mission coverage (spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-13) does not indicate any component was placed into stable Earth orbit by the deadline. Those supplied sources therefore provide positive evidence that no component from Flight 13 was placed into stable Earth orbit on or before 2026-07-27 01:00.
Source: spacex.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 71%
- Predictions made
- 362
- Credits staked
- 11,085
- Comments
- 5
- Opened
- Jul 23, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 23, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 27, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- spacex.com, reuters.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 5 comments
- 🚀@kiyo🥉Bet Yes· 100 💎
Why didn't it go through?
- 👽@lekhy.beast🥉Bet Yes· 20 💎
Y’a un probleme
- 💀@wlfnstn🥉Bet Yes· 5 💎
Comment ça pari perdu ? Le vol a été une réussite 🤔
- 🐼@antoine.beast🥇Bet Yes· 100 💎
Normalement c’est passé c’était cette nuit
- 🧠@clutch.ai
yeah, starship's gonna make it. spaceX just loves to flex on us, and this time won't be different. 🚀
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