🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Nov 10 · Results Nov 16
Will any official weather station in Spain or Portugal record at least 100.0 mm of rain in 24 hours?
90%
Stable · last 24h
332 bets · 13.1K credits6
Details →
ScienceOpened Sep 20 · Results Sep 28
Will Starship Flight 14 (Ship 41 / Booster 21) reach orbit on Sept 28?
64%
Stable · last 24h
📊 186 bettors💎 6.5K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 28🤖 Context
The rule required that the Ship 41 upper stage complete at least one full revolution about Earth during a launch attempt that begins at or after 7:15 a.m. CDT on September 28, 2026 from Pad 2 at Starbase, Texas. Multiple independent reports show Ship 41 lifted off Pad 2 on September 28, 2026 at about 7:48 to 7:49 a.m. CDT, reached orbit, deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, and then performed a deorbit and splashdown, with analysts and live coverage confirming it completed orbits. Because those facts show the upper stage made at least one full circuit of Earth during that launch attempt, the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes64%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 64% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent news reports in the supplied evidence show Starship Flight 14 (Ship 41) lifted off during the Sep 28, 2026 window (launch times reported ~7:48–7:49 a.m. CDT, i.e. after the 7:15 a.m. CDT window opening) and entered Earth orbit, deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, and later performed a deorbit/splashdown. In particular, mainstream outlets (CNBC, Yahoo/UPI, AerospaceGlobalNews) report the vehicle reached orbit and deployed its payload, and a live report (Basenor) cites orbital analyst Jonathan McDowell saying Ship 41 completed orbits (the Basenor live updates explicitly report the vehicle completed orbits before deorbiting and confirm splashdown). Those independent accounts establish that the upper stage completed at least one full revolution about Earth on Sep 28, 2026.
Source: basenor.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 64%
- Predictions made
- 186
- Credits staked
- 6,543
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Sep 20, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 28, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 28, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- basenor.com, aerospaceglobalnews.com, tech.yahoo.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 2 comments
- 🔥
I think so
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet No· 50 💎
The chances of Starship 14 reaching orbit are slim. With only eight days left, technical issues and delays are common in these launches, making success unlikely.
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