Will Falcon 9 place all 27 Starlink V2 Mini satellites into low Earth orbit?

72%
Stable · last 24h

85%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 13The market required SpaceX or a reputable news outlet to report that the Falcon 9 physically lifted off SLC‑40 at Cape Canaveral on September 13, 2026 local time, and an on‑pad abort before clearing the tower would count as a no. Florida Today published a gallery saying the Falcon 9 launched at 2:49 p.m. on Sunday, Sept. 13 from Launch Complex 40 and included photos of the rocket ascending, and Bastille Post via BusinessWire similarly reported a 2:49 p.m. liftoff carrying three SES O3b mPOWER satellites from SLC‑40. Because reputable outlets reported the launch and showed the vehicle clearing the tower and climbing at that local time, the condition is met and the outcome is yes.
How markets are built and settled85%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 85% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Premise (Florida Today gallery): It states “Launch of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carrying three SES O3B mPOWER satellites. Launch was at 2:49 p.m. on Sunday, Sept. 13 from Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station,” with photos showing the rocket ascending. Inference: A reported “launch” with images of ascent from LC‑40 means engines ignited and the vehicle cleared the tower and climbed, satisfying the “physically lift off” condition at SLC‑40 on Sep 13 (EDT). Premise (Bastille Post/BusinessWire): “The three satellites launched at 2:49 pm local time aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex 40 (SLC‑40) at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.” Inference: This corroborates the exact time, location, and payload (three O3b mPOWER satellites) on the local date in question. Conclusion: The Falcon 9 carrying three O3b mPOWER satellites did physically lift off from SLC‑40 on September 13, 2026 (EDT).
Source: floridatoday.comSources used to resolve this market
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