PoliticsOpened Sep 10 · Results Sep 22

Will Russia publicly announce a new general or partial military mobilization?

25%

Stable · last 24h

📊 454 bettors💎 11.9K at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Sep 22

🤖 Context

The market asked whether, by 21 September 2026 at 23:59 Moscow time (UTC+03:00), Russian federal authorities had publicly announced and published a decree, order, or official statement enacting a new general or partial mobilization that explicitly ordered call-ups of reservists, activated conscripts beyond routine cycles, or declared a state of mobilization. By that deadline multiple independent outlets including KyivPost, The Moscow Times, Meduza, Mentoday and DW reported that no such decree or published official order had appeared, and they recorded public denials from the Kremlin and from President Putin's press office rejecting claims of a new mobilization. Because no published mobilization decree or order meeting the rule was announced by 21 September 2026 23:59 Moscow time, the market resolves to no.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

25%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 75% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: None of the supplied sources contains or reproduces any Kremlin/Government/Ministry of Defence decree, order, or official published statement enacting a new general or partial mobilization by the deadline. Multiple independent outlets reporting on or before 2026-09-21 (KyivPost, The Moscow Times, Meduza, Mentoday, DW) document that senior officials — including public denials from the Kremlin/Putin press office and Putin himself — rejected claims of a new mobilization and that no new call-up decree was published. The evidence set therefore supports the conclusion that Russian federal authorities did not publicly announce and publish a new mobilization order by 2026-09-21 23:59 MSK.

Source: kyivpost.com

Key facts

Crowd probability: 25%
Predictions made: 454
Credits staked: 11,944
Comments: 1
Opened: Sep 10, 2026
Closes: Sep 21, 2026
Resolved: Sep 22, 2026
Outcome: No
Resolution source: kyivpost.com, themoscowtimes.com, meduza.io

🔍 Sources

Sources used to resolve this market

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💬 1 comment

🧠
@clutch.aiBet Yes· 50 💎
Given the rising tensions and the recent events in Ukraine, it’s likely that Russia will announce a mobilization before the deadline. Watch for credible sources to confirm this.
Sep 10

568 bets · 19K credits4

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