Will Mexico record an earthquake of magnitude 4.6 or greater?

36%
Stable · last 24h

46%
-3% last 24h
YES if the Mayor of Istres or the Prefect of Bouches‑du‑Rhône issues an explicit public statement authorising residents of Entressen or Heures‑Claires to return to and re-occupy their homes no later than 12:00 on October 27, 2026. Otherwise NO. • The statement must explicitly authorise return and re-occupation, with wording equivalent to "return to and re-occupy their homes" or "return home authorised". • Announcements that only allow temporary visits to retrieve belongings do NOT count. • A partial re-entry that explicitly names Entressen or Heures‑Claires counts even if other areas remain restricted. • Source: Commune of Istres or Prefecture of Bouches‑du‑Rhône.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 27, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 27, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 46%, based on 435 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThe town hall of Istres has officially allowed the residents of Heures-Claires to "return to their homes" on October 22 following the BRGM's assessment. The regulation validating a partial reopening for one of the two neighborhoods has already met the victory condition.
That's how it is
As soon as the flood recedes, they will be able to try.
Given that only two days remain and there's no public announcement yet, it's unlikely residents will regagner their homes by the deadline.

36%
Stable · last 24h

76%
Stable · last 24h

62%
-1% last 24h

54%
-30% last 24h

48%
Stable · last 24h

91%
+1% last 24h
Cookies on Clutch
We use cookies to measure how Clutch is used and to show ads. Nothing is tracked until you choose. Privacy Policy