🏛️Politics·ParliamentCloses Nov 2
Will Luis Redondo, former president of the National Congress, be arrested or detained by Honduran authorities?
43%
-14% last 24h
454 bets · 20.3K credits6
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PoliticsOpened Sep 16 · Results Oct 31
Will Reform Wales publicly name a new party leader?
35%
Stable · last 24h
📊 404 bettors💎 7K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 31🤖 Context
Resolves YES if, no later than October 31, 2026, two or more independent authoritative news outlets credibly report that Reform Wales has publicly announced and named a new party leader (interim or permanent). Resolves NO if no such named-leader announcement is credibly reported by two or more independent outlets by that date. The appointment of a committee or caretaker body without naming an individual does not count as YES.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes35%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 65% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: The article from the newspaper "The Guardian" shows the result of the internal vote: The article confirms that Helen Jenner formally won the internal election by defeating the other candidate. The BBC also covered the event in detail https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6lym1ngzngzo
Source: theguardian.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 35%
- Predictions made
- 404
- Credits staked
- 6,965
- Comments
- 3
- Opened
- Sep 16, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 31, 2026
- Resolved
- Nov 1, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- theguardian.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 3 comments
- 🔥
According to BBC on 21st of September, Nigel Farage has unveiled Helen Jenner as the newly-elected leader of Reform in Wales, replacing Dan Thomas after his arrest on suspicion of assault and controlling or coercive behaviour.
- ⚔️
Oh yeahhh
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet No· 50 💎
Given the tight timeline and the current dynamics within Reform Wales, I doubt they'll find a leader by the deadline. Too much uncertainty around their direction right now.
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