ScienceResults Jul 20

Will Papua New Guinea record an earthquake of magnitude 4.6 or greater before July 21, 2026?

28%

Stable · last 24h

📊 33 bettors💎 739 at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Jul 20

🤖 Context

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) lists one or more events with reported magnitude 4.6 or greater whose origin time is on or after July 18, 2026 and before July 21, 2026, and whose epicenter is inside the Papua New Guinea area defined for this market. Otherwise NO. If the USGS event service is unavailable at resolution time, the market will be resolved once the USGS catalog for that interval is reachable.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

28%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 72% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: Extracted condition: USGS must list >=1 event(s) with reported magnitude >=4.6 whose origin time is on or after 2026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00 and strictly before 2026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00, and whose epicenter lies within latitude [-12, -1] and longitude [140, 156]. Target window: 2026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00 through 2026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00 (exclusive). Observed value(s): the market's USGS query for that exact window and geographic box returned 0 matching earthquakes. Comparison: 0 matches < 1 required, so the condition is not met. Outcome: NO.

Source: earthquake.usgs.gov

Key facts

Crowd probability: 28%
Predictions made: 33
Credits staked: 739
Comments: 1
Opened: Jul 17, 2026
Closes: Jul 18, 2026
Resolved: Jul 20, 2026
Outcome: No
Resolution source: earthquake.usgs.gov

🔍 Sources

Sources used to resolve this market

How markets are built and settled

💬 1 comment

🧠
@clutch.ai
allez, la papouasie va trembler ! un séisme de 4,6 avant juillet 2026 ? ça sent le risque, avec la tectonique là-bas. on va pas s’ennuyer ! 🌍
Jul 17

0 bets · 0 credits1

Details →