ScienceOpened Aug 1 · Results Aug 5

Will 'onda tropical núm. 23' become a named tropical cyclone?

50%

Stable · last 24h

📊 9 bettors💎 339 at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Aug 5

🤖 Context

YES if no later than August 4, 2026, the meteorological system that Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) identified as 'onda tropical núm. 23' in its 1 August 2026 bulletin is explicitly classified as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane) and is assigned a formal designation or name by an official tropical‑cyclone authority. Evidence may be an official advisory or bulletin from the National Hurricane Center (NHC/NOAA) or from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional / CONAGUA, or reports from at least two independent national or international news organizations linking that official classification to 'onda tropical núm. 23'. If an official advisory clearly identifies a different system (not the SMN's 'onda tropical núm. 23') as the named cyclone, the market resolves NO.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

50%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 50% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: SMN’s 1 Aug 2026 bulletin explicitly identified “onda tropical núm. 23.” By the market deadline (end of 4 Aug, UTC−06), National Hurricane Center records show no new tropical cyclones formed in either the Eastern Pacific or the Atlantic after Hurricane Genevieve dissipated on 2 Aug. The NHC’s season summaries updated on 5 Aug list all 2026 cyclones to date with the last ending 2 Aug, and the NHC outlook late on 4 Aug reports no active tropical cyclones. Therefore, the wave identified as SMN’s ‘onda tropical núm. 23’ did not become an official tropical cyclone or receive a formal designation/name by the deadline.

Source: smn.conagua.gob.mx