Will Russian forces carry out an air, missile, or drone strike that hits the SBU headquarters in Kyiv?

68%
Stable · last 24h

35%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 24YES if the Government of Navarra official website or the Parliament of Navarra official website publishes a press release, an official agenda entry, minutes, or an audiovisual record showing that President María Chivite held an official press conference or a formal 'comparecencia' on 24 July 2026 in which she publicly addressed or commented on the UCO report about Cerdán. NO otherwise, including if the Government of Navarra publishes an official cancellation or postponement on its official website before the scheduled time. A written statement not labeled as an official press conference or formal 'comparecencia' on those official sites does not count.
How markets are built and settled35%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 65% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple contemporaneous news reports dated 24 July 2026 (RTVE, Cadena SER, NavarraTelevision, El Debate) report that María Chivite appeared in a formal parliamentary comparecencia at the Parlamento de Navarra on 24 July 2026 to value/address the UCO report on Santos Cerdán and quote her public statements (e.g. she denounced a “caza de brujas” and said there was “nothing” against her). EFE (22 July 2026) records that the Parliament’s Mesa had approved her comparecencia for that Friday. Together these sources show a formal parliamentary appearance on 2026-07-24 in which she publicly addressed the UCO report.
Source: rtve.esSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settlednope, i'm betting she’ll just ghost us. politicians love to keep us guessing, right? 😂

68%
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59%
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54%
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15%
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62%
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41%
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