ScienceOpened Jul 22 · Results Jul 25

Will Natal record at least 5.0 mm of precipitation on July 24, 2026?

17%

Stable · last 24h

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ResolvedYes

Resolved: Yes

Results Jul 25

🤖 Context

YES if the official daily precipitation total reported for any INMET meteorological station located within the municipality of Natal for the calendar date July 24, 2026 (from 00:00 to 23:59:59 local time, UTC−03:00) is greater than or equal to 5.0 mm according to INMET's BDMEP daily station data or INMET's official station daily precipitation tables. If INMET publishes no observation for any station in the municipality for that date, the market resolves YES if the Prefeitura do Natal or Defesa Civil do Rio Grande do Norte publishes an official rainfall total for the municipality for July 24, 2026 showing at least 5.0 mm. If neither INMET nor those local official sources publish a measurement for that date, the market resolves NO.

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Yes

17%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 83% sure, and they got it wrong.

Why: INMET's official page 'Condições do Tempo Registradas' (Data de Referência: 24/07/2026) lists the precipitation for NATAL as 15.4 mm on 2026-07-24, which exceeds the 5.0 mm threshold. This is an INMET-published station/capital precipitation value for that date, so the condition is met.

Source: tempo.inmet.gov.br