Will Russia publicly announce a new general or partial military mobilization?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 30YES if the Secretaría de Educación Pública (SEP) posts on its official website on or before July 29, 2026 at 11:59 PM (UTC−5) an official written communique, notice, or legal instrument that explicitly states that 'militarized', 'military', 'castrense' or any substantially equivalent 'military‑style' education modalities or camps for minors are not authorized in any Mexican state. The communique must use language of non‑authorization or prohibition (for example "no está autorizada") referring to minors or to camps/academies; a mere condemnation, an expression of concern, or a statement that the matter is under investigation does not qualify. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settled71%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 71% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent news reports (cited below) state that the SEP sent an official written communiqué to state education authorities and quoted its language explicitly saying that educational services described as “militarizada”, “militar”, “castrense” or analogous military-style modalities are not authorized. Example: La Jornada (2026-07-27) reports the SEP sent a communiqué to all state authorities and quotes Secretary Mario Delgado saying such military-style education “no está autorizada por la ley” and that the SEP reminded states to review permits; Infobae (2026-07-25) quotes the communiqué wording: “la SEP reitera ... que no está autorizada la prestación del servicio educativo bajo la denominación y/o modalidad ‘militarizada’, ‘militar’, ‘castrense’...” OEM/El Sol de México (2026-07-29) likewise reports the SEP ordered such institutions not to operate and warned of clausures. These sources together provide direct, date-stamped reporting that SEP issued a written notice using the required non-authorization language before the market deadline.
Source: jornada.com.mxSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled"I voted yes. I think those programs will be officially declared unauthorized."
not a chance! the SEP loves its military shenanigans. it'll be more like 'oops, we didn’t mean that!' 😂

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