Will Mexico have an earthquake of magnitude 4.6 or greater?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one event whose final recorded magnitude at resolution time is at least 4.6 and whose origin time is at or after 00:00 UTC on September 14, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on September 17, 2026. The event's epicenter must be within Mexico as indicated by the USGS event location, coordinates, or place string. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 14, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 17, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 13%, based on 118 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

13%

Predictions made

118

Credits staked

3,896

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 13, 2026

Closes

Sep 14, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 17, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 14, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 17, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 13% and NO 87%, based on 118 predictions and 3.9K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Mexico have an earthquake of magnitude 4.6 or greater?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Mexico have an earthquake of magnitude 4.6 or greater?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.