🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 30 · Results Oct 31
Will a public protest or march take place in Paris on October 31?
95%
Stable · last 24h
897 bets · 34.1K credits16
Details →
PoliticsOpened Sep 10 · Results Sep 19
Will Mexico City (CDMX) receive the national seismic alert on Sep 19?
46%
Stable · last 24h
📊 456 bettors💎 10.6K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 19🤖 Context
The rule required that between 11:58 and 12:02 (Mexico City local time, UTC-05:00) on 19 September 2026 the national seismic-alert system issue an official test or alert explicitly identified as the "Segundo Simulacro Nacional 2026" for the Mexico City area and that the issuance be recorded as activated in Mexico City. Multiple independent Mexican news outlets reported the alert sounding in Mexico City at midday on 19 September 2026: Milenio recorded the alert arriving on cellphones at 12:00–12:01 and identified it as part of the Segundo Simulacro Nacional 2026, La Razón said the Alerta Sísmica sounded at midday in Ciudad de México as part of the drill, and El Sol de México reported the city loudspeakers emitted the alert at 12:00. Those contemporaneous reports place an official, explicitly named test within the 11:58 to 12:02 window and confirm it was activated in Mexico City, so the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes46%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 54% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Multiple independent Mexican news outlets report that the seismic alert for the Segundo Simulacro Nacional 2026 was issued and sounded in Mexico City at midday on 19 September 2026. Milenio’s live coverage documents the alert arriving on cellphones at 12:00–12:01 and explicitly labels it as part of the Segundo Simulacro Nacional 2026; La Razón states the Alerta Sísmica sounded at midday in Ciudad de México and other states “como parte del segundo Simulacro Nacional de 2026”; El Sol de México (OEM) reports that “en punto de las 12:00 horas … la alerta sísmica sonó” through the city’s altavoces. These independent, dated reports corroborate that an official test/alert identified as the Segundo Simulacro Nacional 2026 was activated in Mexico City within the 11:58–12:02 (CDT) window on 2026-09-19.
Source: milenio.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 46%
- Predictions made
- 456
- Credits staked
- 10,551
- Comments
- 2
- Opened
- Sep 10, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 19, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 19, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- milenio.com, razon.com.mx, oem.com.mx
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledRelated predictions
See all →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Nov 7 · Results Nov 8
Will terrorism charges be filed in connection with the Paris‑suburb shootings?
74%
Stable · last 24h
1663 bets · 58K credits16
Details →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Oct 31 · Results Nov 1
Will any city or department in metropolitan France be put under a legally binding curfew?
94%
Stable · last 24h
1251 bets · 46.2K credits18
Details →🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Nov 9 · Results Nov 10
Will Russia and Ukraine hold direct in-person talks?
34%
+21% last 24h
659 bets · 26.1K credits9
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 2 · Results Nov 4
Will Missouri use the Republican-backed congressional map for ballots in the November general election?
40%
Stable · last 24h
576 bets · 18.9K credits6
Details →📍Politics·NationalCloses Nov 3 · Results Nov 4
Will the Missouri Secretary of State tell every county to use the 2022 congressional map for the 2026 general election?
65%
Stable · last 24h
568 bets · 19K credits4
Details →