Will Kilauea reach 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or higher?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS Volcano Notification Service or the USGS Volcano Hazards Program "volcano-updates" page records Kilauea's Volcano Alert Level as 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or 'WARNING' (top alert, eruption imminent) at any time after September 7, 2026 and no later than September 9, 2026. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 7, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 10, 2026. The outcome will be settled against usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 41%, based on 21 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

41%

Predictions made

21

Credits staked

303

Comments

0

Opened

Sep 6, 2026

Closes

Sep 7, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 10, 2026

Resolution source

usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 7, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 10, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 41% and NO 59%, based on 21 predictions and 303 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will Kilauea reach 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or higher?” real-money betting?

No. “Will Kilauea reach 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or higher?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.