ScienceOpened Sep 25 · Results Oct 3

Will Hurricane POLO make landfall in California?

47%

Stable · last 24h

📊 127 bettors💎 5.4K at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Oct 3

🤖 Context

The market required that, between 04:30:34 UTC on September 25, 2026 and no later than October 2, 2026, an official advisory or statement explicitly report that Hurricane POLO's centre crossed the coastline of the U.S. state of California. Official and credible reports show POLO made landfall in Baja California Sur on September 29, 2026 and the National Hurricane Center indicated the system had dissipated over northwestern Mexico by September 30, 2026, while California outlets only reported high surf and said the storm's centre was not expected to make landfall in California. Because no official advisory stated the storm's centre crossed the California coastline within the market window, the market resolves to no.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

47%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 53% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: The supplied evidence consistently shows Hurricane Polo made landfall in Mexico (Baja California Sur) and then weakened/dissipated over northwestern Mexico; none of the provided sources report the storm’s centre crossing the California coastline. Independent, credible items in the pool: LA Times, PBS (AP), and NPR (AP) report Polo struck Baja California Sur on Sept. 29, 2026, and the National Hurricane Center discussion indicates Polo had dissipated over northwestern Mexico by 2026-09-30. California outlets in the pool (KTLA, NBC L.A., etc.) describe high surf and coastal impacts but explicitly state the centre was not expected to make landfall in California. Because multiple independent sources agree the cyclone’s landfall was in Baja California Sur (not California) within the market window, the correct settlement is NO.

Source: nhc.noaa.gov