Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth and land or splash down?

91%
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82%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Oct 6YES if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) or the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) issues an operational advisory or public bulletin at any time up to the resolution date that explicitly classifies Hurricane Nolo as Saffir‑Simpson Category 5. Otherwise NO. • A later official NHC/CPHC post‑storm reclassification that states Nolo was Category 5 also counts. • Reports from other agencies do not count unless the NHC or CPHC explicitly call Nolo Category 5. • Source: National Hurricane Center (NHC) or Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC).
How markets are built and settled82%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 82% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: The NHC/CPHC never classified Nolo as a category 5 during the valid period: on September 30, it had already downgraded to a tropical storm, and its subsequent peak did not reach category 5.
Source: nhc.noaa.govSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the current trajectory and strength of Hurricane Nolo, I think it's likely the NHC will classify it at Category 5 before the deadline. Winds are already nearing that threshold.

91%
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49%
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