Will the Soyuz 2.1b carrying Progress MS‑35 lift off from Baikonur Site 31/6 on September 9?

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Resolved: No
Results Jul 26YES if at 6:00 AM CST on July 27, 2026 the China Meteorological Administration website or the Guangdong Provincial Meteorological Bureau website posts an official bulletin or warnings table showing Guangdong listed under a red (最高等级, highest-severity) typhoon warning. NO otherwise. If the CMA legitimately changes its warning names before that time, resolve YES if its official warnings show Guangdong under its maximum-severity or "extreme" typhoon warning covering that moment.
How markets are built and settled20%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 80% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: All supplied sources that report official warnings state the China National Meteorological Center (中央气象台 / NMC/CMA) issued a red typhoon warning on the night of 25 July 2026 but had downgraded the typhoon-level warning by the next morning. For example, EFE reports the NMC reduced the typhoon alert to orange at 06:00 local time on Sunday (26 July) while keeping a separate red rainstorm alert in some areas; the Economic Times says the CMA’s red typhoon alert issued Saturday night was downgraded to orange and later to yellow on Sunday as Noul weakened; RTHK likewise reports the CMA released a typhoon orange warning at 06:00 and that the red typhoon warning had been issued the previous night. None of the provided evidence shows an active highest-level (red) typhoon warning (or an equivalent renamed maximum-severity typhoon warning) for Guangdong at 2026-07-27 06:00 CST; on the contrary the reports indicate the typhoon-level warning had been downgraded before that time (though some red-level rainstorm warnings remained). Based strictly on the supplied evidence, Guangdong was not under a red (最高等级) typhoon warning at 2026-07-27 06:00 CST.
Source: efe.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settleddef a red typhoon alert in guangdong? sounds like a weather drama! i'm betting on yes, gotta love a good storm show. 🌪️

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