Will Alaska have an earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or greater?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 31YES if SpaceX states in an official post-launch mission update that Falcon 9 booster B1093 landed on the droneship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) after the Starlink 15‑18 launch from Vandenberg SLC‑4E during the posted launch window. Otherwise NO. • The posted launch window opened at 11:48 PM EDT on October 30, 2026 and closed at 3:48 AM EDT on October 31, 2026. • An official post-launch mission update means a SpaceX.com mission update, SpaceX's verified X/Twitter post, or official launch webcast commentary. • If SpaceX does not publish an explicit statement, the market resolves YES if at least two independent reputable space news outlets publish unambiguous reports (photo, video, or telemetry) confirming B1093 landed on OCISLY. • If official or reputable coverage states the booster landed elsewhere or experienced a recovery failure, the market resolves NO. • If the launch is postponed or rescheduled, the market resolves on the official result once the launch occurs. If the mission is cancelled with no new date announced, the market resolves NO. • Source: SpaceX. Examples of reputable outlets include Spaceflight Now, Reuters, NASASpaceflight.
How markets are built and settled91%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 91% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The Falcon 9 booster B1093 successfully landed on the droneship "Of Course I Still Love You" (OCISLY) after the Starlink 15-18 launch. The result meets the market conditions: the launch took place within the authorized window and the landing is confirmed by independent specialized media.
Source: spaceflightnow.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledWith the launch window just opening, there's a solid chance SpaceX will successfully land B1093 on OCISLY. They've been consistent with their recovery efforts lately.

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