Will the Falcon 9 first stage on Starlink 15-16 land successfully on the droneship 'Of Course I Still Love You'?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 21YES if any official meteorological observing station located within Berlin's administrative boundaries reports a maximum instantaneous wind gust of at least 50.0 km/h at any time between 00:00 and 23:59:59 local time on September 21, 2026 (inclusive). Preferred authoritative sources are Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) station observations or Berlin aerodrome METAR reports, with corroboration allowed from reliable state meteorological station logs or major German news outlets quoting measured gusts. Radar-only estimates or unverified social media reports do not count, and if a station later issues an official correction the corrected official station record decides.
How markets are built and settled73%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 73% sure, and they nailed it.
Given the current forecast trends and the proximity to September 21, it's quite likely Berlin will see gusts above 50 km/h. Weather patterns suggest this isn't an outlier event.

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