🚀Science·SpaceCloses Oct 27
Will the Falcon 9 first stage on Starlink 15-16 land successfully on the droneship 'Of Course I Still Love You'?
90%
-1% last 24h
228 bets · 10K credits7
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ScienceOpened Jun 21 · Results Aug 5
Will Ariane 6 be selected for a major upcoming space mission?
77%
Stable · last 24h
📊 261 bettors💎 4.9K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 5🤖 Context
This market will resolve to YES if Ariane 6 is chosen to launch a significant space mission within the next 45 days. It will resolve to NO if it is not selected for any major mission during this period.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes77%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 77% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Arianespace published a press release on 2026-07-20 stating “Arianespace to launch weather satellite MTG-I2 on Ariane 6's first mission to geostationary orbit on August 27, 2026,” which directly indicates Ariane 6 was selected as the launch vehicle for a major upcoming (geostationary weather) mission. The Arianespace site’s news listings in the supplied evidence clearly show that selection and date.
Source: arianespace.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 77%
- Predictions made
- 261
- Credits staked
- 4,948
- Comments
- 0
- Opened
- Jun 21, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 5, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 5, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- arianespace.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
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