Will Sophie Adenot return to Earth and land or splash down?

91%
Stable · last 24h

78%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Oct 4YES if at least one official weather station or official observational product reports measured total precipitation of at least 150 mm accumulated for the 24-hour period from 00:00 to 23:59:59 on October 3, 2026, at a location whose official station metadata places it inside the administrative boundaries of the Hérault department. Otherwise NO. • Only official weather-station measurements or official observational products count. • If only station-level data are available, the highest official station total for a site inside Hérault is used. • Source: Météo‑France (preferred). Banque Hydro/Vigicrues station records, prefecture communiqués, or widely-reported national or regional press may also be used.
How markets are built and settled78%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 78% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: At most, there was 85.6 mm of rain at the Octon station.
Source: infoclimat.frSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled
91%
Stable · last 24h

49%
-13% last 24h

45%
-41% last 24h

50%
Stable · last 24h

54%
-33% last 24h

40%
-5% last 24h
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