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ScienceOpened Sep 5 · Results Sep 7
Will any metropolitan French department be on orange or red heatwave alert on September 6?
89%
Stable · last 24h
📊 319 bettors💎 11.2K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 7🤖 Context
The market resolves yes if Météo‑France’s official Vigilance archive map for September 6, 2026 shows at any time that at least one metropolitan French department, a metropolitan coastal zone, or the national 'FRANCE' roll‑up is at orange or red for the Canicule (heatwave) hazard. On September 6, 2026 the archived map shows Ardèche (07), Aude (11), Drôme (26), Gard (30), Hérault (34) and Vaucluse (84) at orange for Canicule from 04:00 UTC to 22:00 UTC, and the national 'FRANCE' roll‑up is also at orange over the same period. Because one or more metropolitan départements and the national roll‑up were on orange for the Canicule that day, the condition is met and the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes89%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 89% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: On 2026-09-06, at any time that date at least one metropolitan French département, a metropolitan coastal zone, or the national 'FRANCE' roll‑up is at vigilance level orange or rouge for the Canicule (heatwave) hazard. Target date/window: 2026-09-06 (any time that calendar date). Observed data (Météo‑France Vigilance archived map for 2026-09-06, EXHAUSTIVE list): 07 Ardèche — Canicule (heatwave) orange from 2026-09-06T04:00:00Z to 2026-09-06T22:00:00Z; 11 Aude — Canicule orange 2026-09-06T04:00:00Z to 2026-09-06T22:00:00Z; 26 Drôme — Canicule orange 2026-09-06T04:00:00Z to 2026-09-06T22:00:00Z; 30 Gard — Canicule orange 2026-09-06T04:00:00Z to 2026-09-06T22:00:00Z; 34 Hérault — Canicule orange 2026-09-06T04:00:00Z to 2026-09-06T22:00:00Z; 84 Vaucluse — Canicule orange 2026-09-06T04:00:00Z to 2026-09-06T22:00:00Z; FRANCE (national roll-up) — Canicule orange 2026-09-06T04:00:00Z to 2026-09-06T22:00:00Z. These entries are explicitly for the Canicule hazard, are at orange (level 3), and include metropolitan départements and the national roll-up, so the market's YES condition is satisfied.
Source: vigilance.meteofrance.frKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 89%
- Predictions made
- 319
- Credits staked
- 11,181
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Sep 5, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 5, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 7, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- vigilance.meteofrance.fr
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 50 💎
With the current forecast showing multiple departments at orange for heatwave, it's clear that at least one will be on alert tomorrow. Expect vigilance levels to remain high.
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