Will an official evacuation order be issued in Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, or Michoacán because of Tropical Storm or Hurricane Marie?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than 06:00 on September 5, 2026 (Central Daylight Time), any municipal, state, or federal civil-protection or government authority responsible for Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, or Michoacán publishes an official mandatory evacuation order for residents that explicitly cites Tropical Storm or Hurricane Marie as the reason. This must appear in a formal press release, government bulletin, or public statement from that authority, or be widely reported by multiple independent mainstream news outlets citing that authority. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 3, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 5, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 67%, based on 7 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

67%

Predictions made

7

Credits staked

163

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 1, 2026

Closes

Sep 3, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 5, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 3, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 5, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 67% and NO 33%, based on 7 predictions and 163 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will an official evacuation order be issued in Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, or Michoacán because of Tropical Storm or Hurricane Marie?” real-money betting?

No. “Will an official evacuation order be issued in Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, or Michoacán because of Tropical Storm or Hurricane Marie?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.