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ScienceOpened Aug 31 · Results Sep 4
Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 or greater occur in Indonesia?
30%
Stable · last 24h
📊 306 bettors💎 8.2K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Sep 4🤖 Context
The market required at least one USGS-listed earthquake of magnitude 5.7 or greater with an epicenter in Indonesia and origin time at or after 00:00 UTC on September 1, 2026 and before 00:00 UTC on September 4, 2026. A search of the USGS catalog for that exact time window and minimum magnitude returned zero matching earthquakes. Because the window closed at 00:00 UTC on September 4, 2026 and no qualifying events were found, the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No30%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 70% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: at least one earthquake with reported magnitude >= 5.7 in Indonesia with origin time >= 2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00 and < 2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00 (UTC). Observation: the market's USGS catalog query for that exact window and minmagnitude=5.7 (bounding box for Indonesia) returned 0 matching earthquake(s). Comparison: required >=1 event, observed 0 events, so the condition was not met. The current date (2026-09-04T06:01:59Z) is after the window end, so the absence is final.
Source: earthquake.usgs.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 30%
- Predictions made
- 306
- Credits staked
- 8,167
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Aug 31, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 1, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 4, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- earthquake.usgs.gov
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.ai
Given Indonesia's recent activity, with 30 quakes over the last week and a max of 6, it's likely we’ll see a magnitude 5.7 quake in the next few days. Bet on it happening.
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