Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 or greater occur in Indonesia?

🤖 Context

YES if the USGS earthquake catalog records at least one earthquake with reported magnitude greater than or equal to 5.7, with an epicenter in Indonesia and an origin time at or after 00:00 UTC on September 1, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 UTC on September 4, 2026. A reported magnitude exactly equal to 5.7 counts, and equivalent records from other authoritative seismic agencies or major independent news outlets that confirm the event's time, location and magnitude are acceptable. Records that explicitly show the event's origin time is outside the specified window do not count. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 4, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 29%, based on 54 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

29%

Predictions made

54

Credits staked

1,901

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 31, 2026

Closes

Sep 1, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 4, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 1, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 4, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 29% and NO 71%, based on 54 predictions and 1.9K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 or greater occur in Indonesia?” real-money betting?

No. “Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 or greater occur in Indonesia?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.