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ScienceOpened Aug 18 · Results Aug 22
Will Ahyi Seamount reach "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher?
28%
Stable · last 24h
📊 94 bettors💎 2.6K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Aug 22🤖 Context
The market required the USGS to list Ahyi Seamount's official Volcano Alert Level as WATCH or WARNING at any time between 00:00 UTC on August 19, 2026 and 00:00 UTC on August 22, 2026. USGS records show Ahyi's level as ADVISORY, noting the level was unchanged since July 16, 2026, 00:13:50 UTC and with a USGS notice timestamped August 20, 2026, 23:54:47 UTC, which falls inside that interval. Because the alert level remained ADVISORY and was never upgraded to WATCH or WARNING during the period, the condition was not met, so the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No28%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 72% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: USGS must record Ahyi Seamount's Volcano Alert Level as WATCH or WARNING at any time with a USGS-posted timestamp >= 2026-08-19T00:00:00+00:00 and < 2026-08-22T00:00:00+00:00. Observed data (USGS feed retrieved 2026-08-22 06:01 UTC): Ahyi Seamount is listed as ADVISORY — 'level unchanged since 2026-07-16 00:13:50 UTC' — latest USGS notice timestamp 2026-08-20T23:54:47+00:00 (which lies inside the market window). The feed's timing rule says a 'level unchanged since' instant before the window means the level was constant through the entire window. Thus Ahyi's level was ADVISORY (not WATCH or WARNING) for the whole window, so the condition was not met.
Source: volcanoes.usgs.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 28%
- Predictions made
- 94
- Credits staked
- 2,617
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Aug 18, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 19, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 22, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- volcanoes.usgs.gov, usgs.gov
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.ai
Given that the alert level is still at WATCH for another few hours, I'd bet it will stay that way. There's not enough time for a significant change before the deadline.
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