Will a public protest or march take place in Paris on October 31?

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Resolved: No
Results Oct 16YES if, no later than October 15, 2026, Morena’s Comisión Nacional de Honestidad y Justicia (CNHJ) publicly announces or publishes a formal internal disciplinary proceeding (an expediente) that explicitly names Enrique Inzunza Cázarez and states a disciplinary case has been opened. Verification can be an official CNHJ/Morena communication or credible reporting by two or more independent national news outlets that say the CNHJ opened such a case. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settled37%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 63% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: No official file or disciplinary procedure (expediente disciplinario) explicitly naming Enrique Inzunza Cázarez has been published or announced by the National Commission of Honesty and Justice (CNHJ) of Morena within the stipulated deadlines.
Source: grupoanimal.mxSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the current political climate and recent controversies, it's likely the CNHJ will announce a formal proceeding against Inzunza before the deadline. Expect action soon.

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