Will Bitcoin be at least $82,700 on October 11?

72%
Stable · last 24h

48%
+7% last 24h
Resolved: Yes
Results Oct 9The rule required Clutch's finalized archived total for the local calendar day of October 9, 2026 to show at least 775 distinct Renfe long- and medium-distance trains whose maximum delay that day was five minutes or more. Clutch's finalized daily total for that local day reports 818 such distinct Renfe long- and medium-distance trains. Because 818 is greater than 775, the condition is met and the market resolves to yes.
How markets are built and settled48%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 52% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: Clutch's finalized archived total for the local calendar day of 2026-10-09 must be at least 775 distinct Renfe long- and medium-distance trains whose maximum delay during that local day was >= 5 minutes. Target/window: the local calendar day ending 2026-10-09 (Clutch states this covers the local calendar day ending at 2026-10-09 21:59 UTC). Observed value: Clutch's finalized daily total (finalized by Clutch at 2026-10-09 22:00 UTC) reports 818 trains seen since local midnight whose maximum delay reached during the day was 5+ minutes, counting both long- and medium-distance trains. Comparison: 818 >= 775, so the market resolves YES.
Source: clutch.vipSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledBased on recent trends, it's likely Renfe will exceed 775 delays tomorrow. They've been consistently high, and with only one day of data left, I see this happening.

72%
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47%
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70%
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