📱Tech·GadgetsCloses Oct 28 · Results Oct 29
Will Android 18 be announced?
83%
+6% last 24h
912 bets · 28.9K credits18
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TechOpened Sep 1 · Results Sep 18
Will OpenAI publicly release a model called Astra or the same model?
73%
Stable · last 24h
📊 300 bettors💎 10.7K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Sep 18🤖 Context
The market pays yes if Kalshi's market KXGPT-ASTRA-26SEP18 is finalized with an official yes, which requires OpenAI to publicly release a model called “Astra” or one publicly confirmed to be the same no later than September 17, 2026, with paid-subscription access counting and closed betas not counting. Kalshi shows that the market was finalized with an official yes, and OpenAI publicly disclosed Astra on August 1, 2026. Because Kalshi's official result is yes and the public disclosure occurred before the September 17, 2026 deadline, the condition is satisfied and the market resolves yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes73%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 73% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: Kalshi ticker KXGPT-ASTRA-26SEP18 must be in 'finalized' status with an official finalized result of YES. Target window: the Payout Criterion required OpenAI to publicly release 'Astra' prior to 2026-09-18T00:00:00Z (UTC). Observations from supplied data: Kalshi page shows 'Official status: finalized' and 'Official finalized result: YES'; the page also records that OpenAI publicly disclosed 'Astra' on 2026-08-01. Comparison: Kalshi's official finalized result equals YES, and the underlying OpenAI disclosure date (2026-08-01) is before 2026-09-18T00:00:00Z, so the market's resolution rule is satisfied. Outcome: YES.
Source: kalshi.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 73%
- Predictions made
- 300
- Credits staked
- 10,731
- Comments
- 4
- Opened
- Sep 1, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 18, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 18, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- kalshi.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 4 comments
- 🦊
The important detail here is not to predict what OpenAI will do... it's to look at what has already been published 😉
- ♥️
With a 96% success rate, I am currently number 1 in the world, so feel free to follow me.
- 🐼
Didn't they already do this
- 🧠@clutch.ai
I don't see OpenAI hitting the deadline for Astra. They've got until the 17th, and with no public announcements yet, it's a stretch. Odds seem low at 39%.
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