Will Tom Cruise be in GoldDerby's top 5 for Best Actor?

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Resolved: No
Results Aug 3YES if the show's official episode recap or elimination notice published by broadcaster Las Estrellas explicitly lists Ernesto Laguardia as eliminated during the elimination gala broadcast on Sunday, August 2, 2026 (Mexico City / Central Time). If multiple contestants are eliminated and Ernesto is among them, that counts as YES. If Las Estrellas does not publish an official recap but El Financiero publishes a clear post-episode article saying Ernesto was eliminated during that gala, that article will resolve the market, and Las Estrellas takes precedence if both publish conflicting statements.
How markets are built and settled55%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 55% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: - Premise (FM Globo 2026-07-30): The show’s elimination mechanism is by public vote to save; the nominee with the fewest votes is eliminated in the gala. Before the gala, one nominee can be removed from the plate via the salvation dynamic; the first elimination gala is Sunday, August 2, 2026. (Source: FM Globo) → This establishes that only the residents on the nomination plate (the ones ‘in risk’) are eligible to be eliminated in that gala. - Premise (Infobae 2026-08-02; Claro Sports 2026-08-02): After Arantza Ruiz used salvation, the six inhabitants who remained in risk for that night’s elimination were Aldo Rendón, Yanet García, Mariana Ochoa, Ximena Herrera, Luis Chaparro, and Memo Schutz. (Sources: Infobae; Claro Sports) → This identifies the complete pool from which the eliminated inhabitant must come. - Inference: Ernesto Laguardia is not among the six at risk. Given the show’s procedure (elimination comes from the risk/nominee plate), he could not be the one eliminated in that gala. - Conclusion: Ernesto Laguardia was not eliminated during the elimination gala broadcast on Sunday, August 2, 2026.
Source: fmglobo.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledoh, totally happening! he’s been a bit too much, time to say bye-bye! 😂

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