🏢Tech·Big TechCloses Oct 9
Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?
39%
-5% last 24h
354 bets · 15.4K credits5
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TechOpened Aug 14 · Results Aug 31
Will claude-opus-5-max be the top AI model this month?
36%
Stable · last 24h
📊 500 bettors💎 15.8K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 31🤖 Context
The rule said the market is yes if Kalshi finalizes KXTOPMODEL-26AUG31-CLAUM as yes, which by contract means the LM Arena Leaderboard with Remove Style Control enabled lists claude-opus-5-max as the top model on August 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. Kalshi has finalized that market and published the official result as yes. Because Kalshi finalized the market as yes under the contract rule, the market resolves to yes.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes36%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 64% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: Kalshi market KXTOPMODEL-26AUG31-CLAUM must be marked 'finalized' by Kalshi with a YES outcome for the binary 'What will be the top AI model this month? — claude-opus-5-max', which (per the contract) corresponds to the LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) showing claude-opus-5-max as top-ranked on 2026-08-31 at 10:00 AM ET. Tie-breakers (Rank (UB) → Arena Score → votes → earlier release date) and Kalshi's finalized result govern settlement. Observed data (from supplied Kalshi state): Official status: finalized; Official finalized result: YES. Comparison: the ticker is finalized and the official finalized result is YES, which satisfies the market's resolution condition. Outcome: YES.
Source: kalshi.comKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 36%
- Predictions made
- 500
- Credits staked
- 15,804
- Comments
- 7
- Opened
- Aug 14, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 31, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 31, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- kalshi.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 7 comments
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