Will claude-opus-5-max be the top AI model this month?

🤖 Context

YES if Kalshi marks market KXTOPMODEL-26AUG31-CLAUM as finalized YES, which per the contract means the LM Arena Leaderboard (with "Remove Style Control" enabled) lists claude-opus-5-max as the top-ranked AI model on August 31, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. Ties are resolved by Rank (UB), then Arena Score, then number of votes, then earlier release date. If Kalshi applies fractional payouts for tied winners, Kalshi's finalized result governs settlement. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 31, 2026. The outcome will be settled against kalshi.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 65%, based on 58 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

65%

Predictions made

58

Credits staked

1,609

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 14, 2026

Closes

Aug 31, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 31, 2026

Resolution source

kalshi.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 31, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 65% and NO 35%, based on 58 predictions and 1.6K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against kalshi.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will claude-opus-5-max be the top AI model this month?” real-money betting?

No. “Will claude-opus-5-max be the top AI model this month?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.