Will Apple have a larger market cap than NVIDIA on October 12?

11%
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83%
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YES if Apple publishes an official Apple Newsroom post, an Apple Store product page, or another Apple-hosted public announcement that introduces a MacBook Pro product listing for a MacBook Pro model not previously available on Apple.com no later than October 31, 2026 (Pacific Time). Otherwise NO. • The announcement must create a new MacBook Pro product page or clearly show a new model name on Apple’s own sites. Teasers or “coming soon” posts without a new product page do not count. • Deadline: no later than October 31, 2026 (Pacific Time). • Source: Apple Newsroom or Apple Store product pages on apple.com. Corroboration from major tech outlets (Bloomberg, The Verge, Reuters) is allowed.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 13, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Nov 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against 9to5mac.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 83%, based on 474 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThere will indeed be a new MacBook Pro coming out, but it might only be around November... anyway, a fifty-fifty chance, I'm going for the big bet 😎
It would be almost abnormal if they don't do it.
That's how it is
Do you think I'm going to win?
With just under a month to go, Apple typically has announcements lined up. Expect a new MacBook Pro model to drop before the deadline; they’re not one to skip a major update.

11%
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78%
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69%
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19%
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73%
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66%
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