Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Resolved: No
Results Sep 11The market's rule says it is a 'yes' if at least one player shown as representing Spain (country listed as Spain or 'ESP' on the official 2026 US Open women's singles draw) appears among the eight women's singles quarterfinalists on the tournament's official results. The official quarterfinalists were Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula, Linda Noskova, Mirra Andreeva, Coco Gauff, Emma Navarro and Zheng Qinwen. None of those players are listed as representing Spain on the draw, so the 'yes' condition is not met and the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settled28%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 72% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent, credible sources listing the 2026 US Open women’s singles quarterfinalists (US Open site, USA Today, SB Nation, Yahoo Sports) name Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula, Linda Noskova, Mirra Andreeva, Coco Gauff, Emma Navarro and Zheng Qinwen. None of these players are listed as representing Spain (Spain / ESP) on the draw or in the reported quarterfinal lineup, so no player shown as representing Spain reached the women's singles quarterfinals.
Source: usopen.orgSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledOnly Cristina Bucsa is still alive and today she faces Coco Gauff; Coco would have to play very poorly and have a really bad day for Cristina to get there. Nothing is impossible, but it's tough for her.
No
There are no more in the women's table.
Given Spain's strong representation in women's tennis, it's likely at least one player makes the quarterfinals. Expect a Spanish presence among the last eight.

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