A multidão estava 75% confiante, e errou.
74%
Probabilidade final
“A quota de mercado medida de acordo com os critérios do contrato de referência não ultrapassou o limite de 22,5% ao final do período avaliado em 5 de outubro, confirmando assim o resultado 'Não' para este mercado.”
“- A quota de mercado do motor de busca global do Google é consistentemente de ~91–92 % — muito acima de 22,5 % ✅”
Porquê: Extracted condition: The Clutch market resolves YES only if Kalshi contract KXGOOGSHARE-26OCT05-22.5 is finalized on Kalshi as YES; otherwise NO. Target/underlying observation: Google’s market share on OpenRouter’s market-share-by-model-author rankings for the week of Sep 28, 2026, using OpenRouter’s Monday 10:00 AM ET update (week starting 2026-09-28), rounded to one decimal place. Observed data used: Kalshi official ticker state (provided): 'Official status: finalized' and 'Official finalized result: NO' for KXGOOGSHARE-26OCT05-22.5. Comparison: the contract is finalized and the finalized result is NO; because the Clutch rule requires Kalshi to have finalized as YES to resolve YES, this market resolves NO. Decisive evidence: Kalshi’s finalized result, which implements the underlying OpenRouter week-of-2026-09-28 observation.
Fonte: kalshi.comResolvido em 5 de out.