
A multidão estava 58% confiante, e errou.
58%
Probabilidade final
“Vários departamentos já estão classificados como laranja hoje. Portanto, a resposta é necessariamente sim.”
Porquê: Extracted condition: whether any metropolitan French département, any coastal (littoral) zone, or the national roll‑up was at vigilance level ORANGE or ROUGE for the hazard 'Vent violent' (violent wind) at any time on 2026-10-24. Target window: the entire calendar day 2026-10-24. Observations matched: the supplied Météo‑France archived map for 2026-10-24 (marked EXHAUSTIVE) lists all areas that were ORANGE/ROUGE that day. The 'At ORANGE or ROUGE' table contains only: (1) 62 Pas-de-Calais — Pluie-inondation — orange, and (2) FRANCE (national roll-up) — Pluie-inondation — orange. There are no ORANGE or ROUGE entries for 'Vent violent'. 'Vent violent' appears only in the 'At JAUNE' list (yellow) for several departments and the national roll-up. Because the archive is declared exhaustive and no area is listed at orange or red for Vent violent on 2026-10-24, the market condition is not met, so the correct resolution is NO.
Fonte: vigilance.meteofrance.frResolvido em 25 de out.